gullycanyon wrote:I am shamelessly wanting the Tigers to ask Cabrera, "Hey, Miguel, if we were to sign Prince Fielder, would you be willing to move back over to 3rd Base?"
I'll be damned. I forgot about writing that one.
It wasn't like I was sensing anything, at least I don't remember sensing anything. If you would have asked me, I would have said No Fucking Way will they even try to sign Prince Fielder.
Anyway, here we are, again. The only sports season that I love dearly is about to begin.
I expect the Tigers to be in the playoffs. I don't think it will be as easy as some folks are foreseeing. Some good "Ifs" won't happen and some bad "Ifs" will happen.
Shit, we've already had a Bad News/Good News:
The Bad News is that Victor Martinez totally fucked up his leg.
The Good News is that the resulting anxiety prompted the Tigers to sign Prince Fielder, who no one-- no one
-- foresaw the Tigers even trying
I do not understand why some folks (even some who watch baseball quite attentively) perpetually believe that if a team loads up on good-to-great hitting, they are bound to win. How can you not realize that it all comes down to pitching and, to a lesser extent, defense?
Great pitching wins games. Great hitting prevents you from being beaten too easily. That's about it.
A truly solid wire-to-wire season from Scherzer and/or Porcello would be more valuable than Fielder's bat. I'm not worried about Fister. Doug Fister knows what to do, and he's capable of doing it. The guy we watched, late last season, was not an illusion. That's the real Doug Fister. He's our #2 guy only because our #1 guy is Verlander.
Scherzer & Porcello strike an interesting contrast, in my view. Max seems like a guy who has everything he needs but doesn't believe in himself quite enough. Rick seems like a guy who believes in himself (maybe too much, if you know what I mean,) but doesn't quite have everything he needs.
I see that MLB teams are more aggressively looking at the newer methods of statistical analysis. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120316&content_id=27343374&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
That's a good thing, in most ways-- although I am already sick of hearing the word "metrics" being over-used, as though there are no other ways of describing the concept-- but like any information, those new-fangled stats & measurements are of little value if the person examining them is a dope.
Some of that shit is instructive & helpful if you're a fantasy baseball geek, but I hope that some of the Managers & G.M.'s who are getting their feet wet in this modern wading pool of WARs and BIPs don't lose sight of Gully the Stat-Geek's Cardinal Rule of Statalysis:
Stats tell you what happened; they do not tell you what will
happen. Neither any statistic nor analysis of statistics would have even come close to suggesting that Magglio Ordonez would hit a gaudy .363-- almost .05 above his career BA at the time-- in 2007.
A lot of those new "metrics" are held tightly & fondled by dumbshits who want to believe that they know something special even while they totally overlook one of the most basic truths of life: that no part of life is truly static, that everything is on the move. Growing, wilting, improving, worsening, changing
"Well, Cabriguez' BABIP was much better than the league average, last season, so you can look for his WARP to drop, this year."
Man, shut the fuck up. All you know is what happened. You have no fucking clue as to what will
happen. Some guys work on their game and get better at it while other guys are resting on their accomplishments and being lazy. Guys get older, which can go either way; while a guy's reflexes & vision may be on the wane, maybe he's gotten to be a little bit wiser, too, and is actually better than he was when he could see better, move quicker, and heal faster. Guys incur (or heal up from) little nagging injuries that we may not hear about but which prevent(ed) them from performing as they performed in the previous season. Guys develop bad habits-- mechanically and, sometimes, behaviorally. Guys get into funky states of mind that can last for months and which bring down their performance.
In short (as though anything coming from me is ever "in short,") because there is so much that we don't
know, we are hard-pressed to make gainful use of that which we do
I will have nights when I am spitting flaming, radioactive nails about something Jim Leyland did or did not do, but he is not just sitting there, he knows what the fuck he is looking at and knows how to deduce information from it. He doesn't need "metrics" to observe that a guy has been using his batting practice sessions to work on improving his ability to lash liners between 1st Base & 2nd Base. So, when there's a guy on 1st (with less than 2 Outs,) maybe we wonder why Leyland chooses to, or chooses to not, bring in a certain pinch-hitter. Whichever choice he makes, and whether it succeeds or fails, he is not necessarily going to explain it after the game, because A ) he really doesn't give a shit if we understand it, and B ) that macaroni salad is not going to eat itself
A guy like Leyland notices all kinds of little stuff. I watch for little stuff, myself, such as minute body-language signals, and if I'm
noticing that when Justin Verlander is becoming fatigued, or anxious, he paces around more and very distinctively kicks his heel into the dirt with great frequency, it stands to reason that Leyland, sitting there with that rigor mortis face of his, is noticing it, too, and probably knew what the fuck it means long before I even got close to catching on.
So we may need to excuse ol' Jim for smirking when he hears about "metrics" or is asked a blockhead question by a media-type who thinks he's ahead of the Skipper.
Well, there's the inaugural Gully's Musings for 2012. Members of the TL;DR Club have only themselves to blame if they even so much as opened this thread, so I hope the rest of you enjoyed it.
Play fuckin' Ball, goddamit!!
"Do What Thou Wilt" shall be the Whole of the Solid Block of Text.
As a ravine dweller I can confirm this.